Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. 2021. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports. 11(1), 15729.

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Journal Article | Published | English

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Author
Rella, SimonIST Austria; Kulikova, Yuliya A.; Dermitzakis, Emmanouil T.; Kondrashov, FyodorIST Austria
Department
Abstract
Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2021-07-30
Journal Title
Scientific Reports
Acknowledgement
We thank Alexey Kondrashov, Nick Machnik, Raimundo Julian Saona Urmeneta, Gasper Tkacik and Nick Barton for fruitful discussions. We also thank participants of EvoLunch seminar at IST Austria and the internal seminar at the Banco de España for useful comments. The opinions expressed in this document are exclusively of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. ETD is supported by the Swiss National Science and Louis Jeantet Foundation. The work of FAK was in part supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant (771209-CharFL).
Volume
11
Issue
1
Article Number
15729
eISSN
IST-REx-ID

Cite this

Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports. 2021;11(1). doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
Rella, S., Kulikova, Y. A., Dermitzakis, E. T., & Kondrashov, F. (2021). Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
Rella, Simon, Yuliya A. Kulikova, Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis, and Fyodor Kondrashov. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact the Fate of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” Scientific Reports. Springer Nature, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3.
S. Rella, Y. A. Kulikova, E. T. Dermitzakis, and F. Kondrashov, “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains,” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1. Springer Nature, 2021.
Rella S, Kulikova YA, Dermitzakis ET, Kondrashov F. 2021. Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains. Scientific Reports. 11(1), 15729.
Rella, Simon, et al. “Rates of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Vaccination Impact the Fate of Vaccine-Resistant Strains.” Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1, 15729, Springer Nature, 2021, doi:10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3.
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