How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?

Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, Mailler S, MULLER CJ, Ahrens B, Christensen OB, Lionello P. 2020. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. 20(9), 78.


Journal Article | Published | English
Author
Drobinski, Philippe; Da Silva, Nicolas; Bastin, Sophie; Mailler, Sylvain; MULLER, Caroline JIST Austria; Ahrens, Bodo; Christensen, Ole B.; Lionello, Piero
Abstract
Nearly all regions in the world are projected to become dryer in a warming climate. Here, we investigate the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a climate change “hot spot”. From regional climate simulations, it is shown that although enhanced warming and drying over land is projected, the spatial pattern displays high variability. Indeed, drying is largely caused by enhanced warming over land. However, in Northern Europe, soil moisture alleviates warming induced drying by up to 50% due to humidity uptake from land. In already arid regions, the Mediterranean Sea is generally the only humidity source, and drying is only due to land warming. However, over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, enhanced warming over land is insufficient to explain the extreme drying. These regions are also isolated from humidity advection by heat lows, which are cyclonic circulation anomalies associated with surface heating over land. The cyclonic circulation scales with the temperature gradient between land and ocean which increases with climate change, reinforcing the cyclonic circulation over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, both diverting the zonal advection of humidity to the south of the Iberian Peninsula. The dynamics are therefore key in the warming and drying of the Mediterranean region, with extreme aridification over the Sahara and Iberian Peninsula. In these regions, the risk for human health due to the thermal load which accounts for air temperature and humidity is therefore projected to increase significantly with climate change at a level of extreme danger.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2020-09-11
Journal Title
Regional Environmental Change
Volume
20
Issue
9
Article Number
78
IST-REx-ID

Cite this

Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, et al. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. 2020;20(9). doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w
Drobinski, P., Da Silva, N., Bastin, S., Mailler, S., MULLER, C. J., Ahrens, B., … Lionello, P. (2020). How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w
Drobinski, Philippe, Nicolas Da Silva, Sophie Bastin, Sylvain Mailler, Caroline J MULLER, Bodo Ahrens, Ole B. Christensen, and Piero Lionello. “How Warmer and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?” Regional Environmental Change. Springer Nature, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w.
P. Drobinski et al., “How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?,” Regional Environmental Change, vol. 20, no. 9. Springer Nature, 2020.
Drobinski P, Da Silva N, Bastin S, Mailler S, MULLER CJ, Ahrens B, Christensen OB, Lionello P. 2020. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century? Regional Environmental Change. 20(9), 78.
Drobinski, Philippe, et al. “How Warmer and Drier Will the Mediterranean Region Be at the End of the Twenty-First Century?” Regional Environmental Change, vol. 20, no. 9, 78, Springer Nature, 2020, doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w.
All files available under the following license(s):
Copyright Statement:
This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. [...]

Link(s) to Main File(s)
Access Level
OA Open Access

Export

Marked Publications

Open Data IST Research Explorer

Search this title in

Google Scholar