Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide

J. Merrin, Physical Biology 17 (2020).

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Journal Article | Published | English

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Abstract
Error analysis and data visualization of positive COVID-19 cases in 27 countries have been performed up to August 8, 2020. This survey generally observes a progression from early exponential growth transitioning to an intermediate power-law growth phase, as recently suggested by Ziff and Ziff. The occurrence of logistic growth after the power-law phase with lockdowns or social distancing may be described as an effect of avoidance. A visualization of the power-law growth exponent over short time windows is qualitatively similar to the Bhatia visualization for pandemic progression. Visualizations like these can indicate the onset of second waves and may influence social policy.
Publishing Year
Date Published
2020-09-23
Journal Title
Physical Biology
Acknowledgement
I would especially like to thank Michael Sixt for encouraging me to think about these problems while working at home due to restrictions in place. I want to thank Nick Barton, Katka Bodova, Matthew Robinson, Simon Rella, Federico Sau, Ivan Prieto, and Pradeep Kumar for useful discussions.
Volume
17
Issue
6
Article Number
065005
eISSN
IST-REx-ID

Cite this

Merrin J. Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide. Physical Biology. 2020;17(6). doi:10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db
Merrin, J. (2020). Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide. Physical Biology, 17(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db
Merrin, Jack. “Differences in Power Law Growth over Time and Indicators of COVID-19 Pandemic Progression Worldwide.” Physical Biology 17, no. 6 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db.
J. Merrin, “Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide,” Physical Biology, vol. 17, no. 6, 2020.
Merrin J. 2020. Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide. Physical Biology. 17(6).
Merrin, Jack. “Differences in Power Law Growth over Time and Indicators of COVID-19 Pandemic Progression Worldwide.” Physical Biology, vol. 17, no. 6, 065005, IOP Publishing, 2020, doi:10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db.
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