The probability of establishment of an advantageous mutation in a subdivided population

A method is developed for calculating the probability of establishment of an allele which is favoured in some places, but not others, in a large subdivided population. This method is quite general, and could be used to calculate the chance that any system which is linear near an absorbing boundary will move away from that boundary. The results are applied to a population distributed along one dimension. Only mutants which arise within a distance σ/ √2s of the region in which they are favoured stand an appreciable chance of establishment. The net chance of establishment of mutations distributed randomly across the habitat will be decreased by gene flow if selection against them is sufficiently strong. However, if the mutations are only weakly deleterious outside some limited region, gene flow may increase the net chance of establishment.