TY - JOUR
AB - Hybridization is an almost inevitable component of speciation, and its study can tell us much about that process. However, hybridization itself may have a negligible influence on the origin of species: on the one hand, universally favoured alleles spread readily across hybrid zones, whilst on the other, spatially heterogeneous selection causes divergence despite gene flow. Thus, narrow hybrid zones or occasional hybridisation may hardly affect the process of divergence.
AU - Barton, Nicholas H
ID - 2908
IS - 2
JF - Journal of Evolutionary Biology
TI - Does hybridisation influence speciation?
VL - 26
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We survey a class of models for spatially structured populations
which we have called spatial Λ-Fleming–Viot processes. They arise from a flexible
framework for modelling in which the key innovation is that random genetic drift
is driven by a Poisson point process of spatial ‘events’. We demonstrate how this
overcomes some of the obstructions to modelling populations which evolve in two-
(and higher-) dimensional spatial continua, how its predictions match phenomena
observed in data and how it fits with classical models. Finally we outline some
directions for future research.
AU - Barton, Nicholas H
AU - Etheridge, Alison
AU - Véber, Amandine
ID - 2909
IS - 1
JF - Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment
TI - Modelling evolution in a spatial continuum
VL - 2013
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Coalescent simulation has become an indispensable tool in population genetics and many complex evolutionary scenarios have been incorporated into the basic algorithm. Despite many years of intense interest in spatial structure, however, there are no available methods to simulate the ancestry of a sample of genes that occupy a spatial continuum. This is mainly due to the severe technical problems encountered by the classical model of isolation
by distance. A recently introduced model solves these technical problems and provides a solid theoretical basis for the study of populations evolving in continuous space. We present a detailed algorithm to simulate the coalescent process in this model, and provide an efficient implementation of a generalised version of this algorithm as a freely available Python module.
AU - Kelleher, Jerome
AU - Barton, Nicholas H
AU - Etheridge, Alison
ID - 2910
IS - 7
JF - Bioinformatics
TI - Coalescent simulation in continuous space
VL - 29
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We propose a two-step procedure for estimating multiple migration rates in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, accounting for global nuisance parameters. The approach is not limited to migration, but generally of interest for inference problems with multiple parameters and a modular structure (e.g. independent sets of demes or loci). We condition on a known, but complex demographic model of a spatially subdivided population, motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into Switzerland. In the first step, the global parameters ancestral mutation rate and male mating skew have been estimated for the whole population in Aeschbacher et al. (Genetics 2012; 192: 1027). In the second step, we estimate in this study the migration rates independently for clusters of demes putatively connected by migration. For large clusters (many migration rates), ABC faces the problem of too many summary statistics. We therefore assess by simulation if estimation per pair of demes is a valid alternative. We find that the trade-off between reduced dimensionality for the pairwise estimation on the one hand and lower accuracy due to the assumption of pairwise independence on the other depends on the number of migration rates to be inferred: the accuracy of the pairwise approach increases with the number of parameters, relative to the joint estimation approach. To distinguish between low and zero migration, we perform ABC-type model comparison between a model with migration and one without. Applying the approach to microsatellite data from Alpine ibex, we find no evidence for substantial gene flow via migration, except for one pair of demes in one direction.
AU - Aeschbacher, Simon
AU - Futschik, Andreas
AU - Beaumont, Mark
ID - 2944
IS - 4
JF - Molecular Ecology
TI - Approximate Bayesian computation for modular inference problems with many parameters: the example of migration rates.
VL - 22
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Understanding patterns and correlates of local adaptation in heterogeneous landscapes can provide important information in the selection of appropriate seed sources for restoration. We assessed the extent of local adaptation of fitness components in 12 population pairs of the perennial herb Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) and examined whether spatial scale (0.7-600 km), environmental distance, quantitative (QST) and neutral (FST) genetic differentiation, and size of the local and foreign populations could predict patterns of adaptive differentiation. Local adaptation varied among populations and fitness components. Including all population pairs, local adaptation was observed for seedling survival, but not for biomass, while foreign genotype advantage was observed for reproduction (number of inflorescences). Among population pairs, local adaptation increased with QST and local population size for biomass. QST was associated with environmental distance, suggesting ecological selection for phenotypic divergence. However, low FST and variation in population structure in small populations demonstrates the interaction of gene flow and drift in constraining local adaptation in R. leptorrhynchoides. Our study indicates that for species in heterogeneous landscapes, collecting seed from large populations from similar environments to candidate sites is likely to provide the most appropriate seed sources for restoration.
AU - Pickup, Melinda
AU - Field, David
AU - Rowell, David
AU - Young, Andrew
ID - 498
IS - 8
JF - Evolutionary Applications
TI - Predicting local adaptation in fragmented plant populations: Implications for restoration genetics
VL - 5
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - The search for extra-terrestrial intelligence (SETI) has been performed principally as a one-way survey, listening of radio frequencies across the Milky Way and other galaxies. However, scientists have engaged in an active messaging only rarely. This suggests the simple rationale that if other civilizations exist and take a similar approach to ours, namely listening but not broadcasting, the result is a silent universe. A simple game theoretical model, the prisoner's dilemma, explains this situation: each player (civilization) can passively search (defect), or actively search and broadcast (cooperate). In order to maximize the payoff (or, equivalently, minimize the risks) the best strategy is not to broadcast. In fact, the active search has been opposed on the basis that it might be dangerous to expose ourselves. However, most of these ideas have not been based on objective arguments, and ignore accounting of the possible gains and losses. Thus, the question stands: should we perform an active search? I develop a game-theoretical framework where civilizations can be of different types, and explicitly apply it to a situation where societies are either interested in establishing a two-way communication or belligerent and in urge to exploit ours. The framework gives a quantitative solution (a mixed-strategy), which is how frequent we should perform the active SETI. This frequency is roughly proportional to the inverse of the risk, and can be extremely small. However, given the immense amount of stars being scanned, it supports active SETI. The model is compared with simulations, and the possible actions are evaluated through the San Marino scale, measuring the risks of messaging.
AU - Vladar, Harold
ID - 2917
IS - 1
JF - International Journal of Astrobiology
TI - The game of active search for extra terrestrial intelligence Breaking the Great Silence
VL - 12
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the re-introduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θanc = 4 Ne u), and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L2-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θanc ≈ 1.288, and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7×10−4 and 3.5×10−3 per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated to ω ≈ 0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates.
AU - Aeschbacher, Simon
AU - Beaumont, Mark
AU - Futschik, Andreas
ID - 2962
IS - 3
JF - Genetics
TI - A novel approach for choosing summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation
VL - 192
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Little is known about the stability of trophic relationships in complex natural communities over evolutionary timescales. Here, we use sequence data from 18 nuclear loci to reconstruct and compare the intraspecific histories of major Pleistocene refugial populations in the Middle East, the Balkans and Iberia in a guild of four Chalcid parasitoids (Cecidostiba fungosa, Cecidostiba semifascia, Hobbya stenonota and Mesopolobus amaenus) all attacking Cynipid oak galls. We develop a likelihood method to numerically estimate models of divergence between three populations from multilocus data. We investigate the power of this framework on simulated data, and-using triplet alignments of intronic loci-quantify the support for all possible divergence relationships between refugial populations in the four parasitoids. Although an East to West order of population divergence has highest support in all but one species, we cannot rule out alternative population tree topologies. Comparing the estimated times of population splits between species, we find that one species, M. amaenus, has a significantly older history than the rest of the guild and must have arrived in central Europe at least one glacial cycle prior to other guild members. This suggests that although all four species may share a common origin in the East, they expanded westwards into Europe at different times. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
AU - Lohse, Konrad
AU - Barton, Nicholas H
AU - Melika, George
AU - Stone, Graham
ID - 2968
IS - 18
JF - Molecular Ecology
TI - A likelihood based comparison of population histories in a parasitoid guild
VL - 21
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Since Darwin's pioneering research on plant reproductive biology (e.g. Darwin 1877), understanding the mechanisms maintaining the diverse sexual strategies of plants has remained an important challenge for evolutionary biologists. In some species, populations are sexually polymorphic and contain two or more mating morphs (sex phenotypes). Differences in morphology or phenology among the morphs influence patterns of non-random mating. In these populations, negative frequency-dependent selection arising from disassortative (intermorph) mating is usually required for the evolutionary maintenance of sexual polymorphism, but few studies have demonstrated the required patterns of non-random mating. In the current issue of Molecular Ecology, Shang (2012) make an important contribution to our understanding of how disassortative mating influences sex phenotype ratios in Acer pictum subsp. mono (painted maple), a heterodichogamous, deciduous tree of eastern China. They monitored sex expression in 97 adults and used paternity analysis of open-pollinated seed to examine disassortative mating among three sex phenotypes. Using a deterministic 'pollen transfer' model, Shang et al. present convincing evidence that differences in the degree of disassortative mating in progeny arrays of the sex phenotypes can explain their uneven frequencies in the adult population. This study provides a useful example of how the deployment of genetic markers, demographic monitoring and modelling can be integrated to investigate the maintenance of sexual diversity in plants.
AU - Field, David
AU - Barrett, Spencer
ID - 3122
IS - 15
JF - Molecular Ecology
TI - Disassortative mating and the maintenance of sexual polymorphism in painted maple
VL - 21
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - In large populations, many beneficial mutations may be simultaneously available and may compete with one another, slowing adaptation. By finding the probability of fixation of a favorable allele in a simple model of a haploid sexual population, we find limits to the rate of adaptive substitution, Λ, that depend on simple parameter combinations. When variance in fitness is low and linkage is loose, the baseline rate of substitution is Λ 0=2NU〈s〉 is the population size, U is the rate of beneficial mutations per genome, and 〈s〉 is their mean selective advantage. Heritable variance ν in log fitness due to unlinked loci reduces Λ by e -4ν under polygamy and e -8ν under monogamy. With a linear genetic map of length R Morgans, interference is yet stronger. We use a scaling argument to show that the density of adaptive substitutions depends on s, N, U, and R only through the baseline density: Λ/R=F(Λ 0/R). Under the approximation that the interference due to different sweeps adds up, we show that Λ/R~(Λ 0/R)/(1+2Λ 0/R), implying that interference prevents the rate of adaptive substitution from exceeding one per centimorgan per 200 generations. Simulations and numerical calculations confirm the scaling argument and confirm the additive approximation for Λ 0/R 1; for higher Λ 0/R, the rate of adaptation grows above R/2, but only very slowly. We also consider the effect of sweeps on neutral diversity and show that, while even occasional sweeps can greatly reduce neutral diversity, this effect saturates as sweeps become more common-diversity can be maintained even in populations experiencing very strong interference. Our results indicate that for some organisms the rate of adaptive substitution may be primarily recombination-limited, depending only weakly on the mutation supply and the strength of selection.
AU - Weissman, Daniel
AU - Barton, Nicholas H
ID - 3131
IS - 6
JF - PLoS Genetics
TI - Limits to the rate of adaptive substitution in sexual populations
VL - 8
ER -