TY - JOUR AB - Aims: Mass antigen testing programs have been challenged because of an alleged insufficient specificity, leading to a large number of false positives. The objective of this study is to derive a lower bound of the specificity of the SD Biosensor Standard Q Ag-Test in large scale practical use. Methods: Based on county data from the nationwide tests for SARS-CoV-2 in Slovakia between 31.10.–1.11. 2020 we calculate a lower confidence bound for the specificity. As positive test results were not systematically verified by PCR tests, we base the lower bound on a worst case assumption, assuming all positives to be false positives. Results: 3,625,332 persons from 79 counties were tested. The lowest positivity rate was observed in the county of Rožňava where 100 out of 34307 (0.29%) tests were positive. This implies a test specificity of at least 99.6% (97.5% one-sided lower confidence bound, adjusted for multiplicity). Conclusion: The obtained lower bound suggests a higher specificity compared to earlier studies in spite of the underlying worst case assumption and the application in a mass testing setting. The actual specificity is expected to exceed 99.6% if the prevalence in the respective regions was non-negligible at the time of testing. To our knowledge, this estimate constitutes the first bound obtained from large scale practical use of an antigen test. AU - Hledik, Michal AU - Polechova, Jitka AU - Beiglböck, Mathias AU - Herdina, Anna Nele AU - Strassl, Robert AU - Posch, Martin ID - 9816 IS - 7 JF - PLoS ONE TI - Analysis of the specificity of a COVID-19 antigen test in the Slovak mass testing program VL - 16 ER - TY - JOUR AB - This paper analyses the conditions for local adaptation in a metapopulation with infinitely many islands under a model of hard selection, where population size depends on local fitness. Each island belongs to one of two distinct ecological niches or habitats. Fitness is influenced by an additive trait which is under habitat‐dependent directional selection. Our analysis is based on the diffusion approximation and accounts for both genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. By neglecting linkage disequilibria, it yields the joint distribution of allele frequencies and population size on each island. We find that under hard selection, the conditions for local adaptation in a rare habitat are more restrictive for more polygenic traits: even moderate migration load per locus at very many loci is sufficient for population sizes to decline. This further reduces the efficacy of selection at individual loci due to increased drift and because smaller populations are more prone to swamping due to migration, causing a positive feedback between increasing maladaptation and declining population sizes. Our analysis also highlights the importance of demographic stochasticity, which exacerbates the decline in numbers of maladapted populations, leading to population collapse in the rare habitat at significantly lower migration than predicted by deterministic arguments. AU - Szep, Eniko AU - Sachdeva, Himani AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 9252 IS - 5 JF - Evolution KW - Genetics KW - Ecology KW - Evolution KW - Behavior and Systematics KW - General Agricultural and Biological Sciences SN - 0014-3820 TI - Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: A stochastic eco‐evolutionary model VL - 75 ER - TY - JOUR AB - If there are no constraints on the process of speciation, then the number of species might be expected to match the number of available niches and this number might be indefinitely large. One possible constraint is the opportunity for allopatric divergence. In 1981, Felsenstein used a simple and elegant model to ask if there might also be genetic constraints. He showed that progress towards speciation could be described by the build‐up of linkage disequilibrium among divergently selected loci and between these loci and those contributing to other forms of reproductive isolation. Therefore, speciation is opposed by recombination, because it tends to break down linkage disequilibria. Felsenstein then introduced a crucial distinction between “two‐allele” models, which are subject to this effect, and “one‐allele” models, which are free from the recombination constraint. These fundamentally important insights have been the foundation for both empirical and theoretical studies of speciation ever since. AU - Butlin, Roger K. AU - Servedio, Maria R. AU - Smadja, Carole M. AU - Bank, Claudia AU - Barton, Nicholas H AU - Flaxman, Samuel M. AU - Giraud, Tatiana AU - Hopkins, Robin AU - Larson, Erica L. AU - Maan, Martine E. AU - Meier, Joana AU - Merrill, Richard AU - Noor, Mohamed A. F. AU - Ortiz‐Barrientos, Daniel AU - Qvarnström, Anna ID - 9374 IS - 5 JF - Evolution KW - Genetics KW - Ecology KW - Evolution KW - Behavior and Systematics KW - General Agricultural and Biological Sciences SN - 0014-3820 TI - Homage to Felsenstein 1981, or why are there so few/many species? VL - 75 ER - TY - GEN AB - This paper analyzes the conditions for local adaptation in a metapopulation with infinitely many islands under a model of hard selection, where population size depends on local fitness. Each island belongs to one of two distinct ecological niches or habitats. Fitness is influenced by an additive trait which is under habitat-dependent directional selection. Our analysis is based on the diffusion approximation and accounts for both genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. By neglecting linkage disequilibria, it yields the joint distribution of allele frequencies and population size on each island. We find that under hard selection, the conditions for local adaptation in a rare habitat are more restrictive for more polygenic traits: even moderate migration load per locus at very many loci is sufficient for population sizes to decline. This further reduces the efficacy of selection at individual loci due to increased drift and because smaller populations are more prone to swamping due to migration, causing a positive feedback between increasing maladaptation and declining population sizes. Our analysis also highlights the importance of demographic stochasticity, which exacerbates the decline in numbers of maladapted populations, leading to population collapse in the rare habitat at significantly lower migration than predicted by deterministic arguments. AU - Szep, Eniko AU - Sachdeva, Himani AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 13062 TI - Supplementary code for: Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: A stochastic eco-evolutionary model ER - TY - JOUR AB - A primary roadblock to our understanding of speciation is that it usually occurs over a timeframe that is too long to study from start to finish. The idea of a speciation continuum provides something of a solution to this problem; rather than observing the entire process, we can simply reconstruct it from the multitude of speciation events that surround us. But what do we really mean when we talk about the speciation continuum, and can it really help us understand speciation? We explored these questions using a literature review and online survey of speciation researchers. Although most researchers were familiar with the concept and thought it was useful, our survey revealed extensive disagreement about what the speciation continuum actually tells us. This is due partly to the lack of a clear definition. Here, we provide an explicit definition that is compatible with the Biological Species Concept. That is, the speciation continuum is a continuum of reproductive isolation. After outlining the logic of the definition in light of alternatives, we explain why attempts to reconstruct the speciation process from present‐day populations will ultimately fail. We then outline how we think the speciation continuum concept can continue to act as a foundation for understanding the continuum of reproductive isolation that surrounds us. AU - Stankowski, Sean AU - Ravinet, Mark ID - 9383 IS - 6 JF - Evolution SN - 0014-3820 TI - Defining the speciation continuum VL - 75 ER - TY - CHAP AB - Hybrid zones are narrow geographic regions where different populations, races or interbreeding species meet and mate, producing mixed ‘hybrid’ offspring. They are relatively common and can be found in a diverse range of organisms and environments. The study of hybrid zones has played an important role in our understanding of the origin of species, with hybrid zones having been described as ‘natural laboratories’. This is because they allow us to study,in situ, the conditions and evolutionary forces that enable divergent taxa to remain distinct despite some ongoing gene exchange between them. AU - Stankowski, Sean AU - Shipilina, Daria AU - Westram, Anja M ID - 14984 SN - 9780470016176 T2 - Encyclopedia of Life Sciences TI - Hybrid Zones VL - 2 ER - TY - DATA AB - Here are the research data underlying the publication " Effects of fine-scale population structure on inbreeding in a long-term study of snapdragons (Antirrhinum majus)." Further information are summed up in the README document. AU - Surendranadh, Parvathy AU - Arathoon, Louise S AU - Baskett, Carina AU - Field, David AU - Pickup, Melinda AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 9192 TI - Effects of fine-scale population structure on the distribution of heterozygosity in a long-term study of Antirrhinum majus ER - TY - JOUR AB - The growth of snail shells can be described by simple mathematical rules. Variation in a few parameters can explain much of the diversity of shell shapes seen in nature. However, empirical studies of gastropod shell shape variation typically use geometric morphometric approaches, which do not capture this growth pattern. We have developed a way to infer a set of developmentally descriptive shape parameters based on three-dimensional logarithmic helicospiral growth and using landmarks from two-dimensional shell images as input. We demonstrate the utility of this approach, and compare it to the geometric morphometric approach, using a large set of Littorina saxatilis shells in which locally adapted populations differ in shape. Our method can be modified easily to make it applicable to a wide range of shell forms, which would allow for investigations of the similarities and differences between and within many different species of gastropods. AU - Larsson, J. AU - Westram, Anja M AU - Bengmark, S. AU - Lundh, T. AU - Butlin, R. K. ID - 7651 IS - 163 JF - Journal of The Royal Society Interface SN - 1742-5689 TI - A developmentally descriptive method for quantifying shape in gastropod shells VL - 17 ER - TY - CHAP AB - Inversions are chromosomal rearrangements where the order of genes is reversed. Inversions originate by mutation and can be under positive, negative or balancing selection. Selective effects result from potential disruptive effects on meiosis, gene disruption at inversion breakpoints and, importantly, the effects of inversions as modifiers of recombination rate: Recombination is strongly reduced in individuals heterozygous for an inversion, allowing for alleles at different loci to be inherited as a ‘block’. This may lead to a selective advantage whenever it is favourable to keep certain combinations of alleles associated, for example under local adaptation with gene flow. Inversions can cover a considerable part of a chromosome and contain numerous loci under different selection pressures, so that the resulting overall effects may be complex. Empirical data from various systems show that inversions may have a prominent role in local adaptation, speciation, parallel evolution, the maintenance of polymorphism and sex chromosome evolution. AU - Westram, Anja M AU - Faria, Rui AU - Butlin, Roger AU - Johannesson, Kerstin ID - 9123 SN - 9780470016176 T2 - eLS TI - Inversions and Evolution ER - TY - GEN AB - The Mytilus complex of marine mussel species forms a mosaic of hybrid zones, found across temperate regions of the globe. This allows us to study "replicated" instances of secondary contact between closely-related species. Previous work on this complex has shown that local introgression is both widespread and highly heterogeneous, and has identified SNPs that are outliers of differentiation between lineages. Here, we developed an ancestry-informative panel of such SNPs. We then compared their frequencies in newly-sampled populations, including samples from within the hybrid zones, and parental populations at different distances from the contact. Results show that close to the hybrid zones, some outlier loci are near to fixation for the heterospecific allele, suggesting enhanced local introgression, or the local sweep of a shared ancestral allele. Conversely, genomic cline analyses, treating local parental populations as the reference, reveal a globally high concordance among loci, albeit with a few signals of asymmetric introgression. Enhanced local introgression at specific loci is consistent with the early transfer of adaptive variants after contact, possibly including asymmetric bi-stable variants (Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities), or haplotypes loaded with fewer deleterious mutations. Having escaped one barrier, however, these variants can be trapped or delayed at the next barrier, confining the introgression locally. These results shed light on the decay of species barriers during phases of contact. AU - Simon, Alexis AU - Fraisse, Christelle AU - El Ayari, Tahani AU - Liautard-Haag, Cathy AU - Strelkov, Petr AU - Welch, John AU - Bierne, Nicolas ID - 13073 TI - How do species barriers decay? concordance and local introgression in mosaic hybrid zones of mussels ER - TY - GEN AB - Domestication is a human-induced selection process that imprints the genomes of domesticated populations over a short evolutionary time scale, and that occurs in a given demographic context. Reconstructing historical gene flow, effective population size changes and their timing is therefore of fundamental interest to understand how plant demography and human selection jointly shape genomic divergence during domestication. Yet, the comparison under a single statistical framework of independent domestication histories across different crop species has been little evaluated so far. Thus, it is unclear whether domestication leads to convergent demographic changes that similarly affect crop genomes. To address this question, we used existing and new transcriptome data on three crop species of Solanaceae (eggplant, pepper and tomato), together with their close wild relatives. We fitted twelve demographic models of increasing complexity on the unfolded joint allele frequency spectrum for each wild/crop pair, and we found evidence for both shared and species-specific demographic processes between species. A convergent history of domestication with gene-flow was inferred for all three species, along with evidence of strong reduction in the effective population size during the cultivation stage of tomato and pepper. The absence of any reduction in size of the crop in eggplant stands out from the classical view of the domestication process; as does the existence of a “protracted period” of management before cultivation. Our results also suggest divergent management strategies of modern cultivars among species as their current demography substantially differs. Finally, the timing of domestication is species-specific and supported by the few historical records available. AU - Arnoux, Stephanie AU - Fraisse, Christelle AU - Sauvage, Christopher ID - 13065 TI - VCF files of synonymous SNPs related to: Genomic inference of complex domestication histories in three Solanaceae species ER - TY - JOUR AB - When divergent populations are connected by gene flow, the establishment of complete reproductive isolation usually requires the joint action of multiple barrier effects. One example where multiple barrier effects are coupled consists of a single trait that is under divergent natural selection and also mediates assortative mating. Such multiple‐effect traits can strongly reduce gene flow. However, there are few cases where patterns of assortative mating have been described quantitatively and their impact on gene flow has been determined. Two ecotypes of the coastal marine snail, Littorina saxatilis , occur in North Atlantic rocky‐shore habitats dominated by either crab predation or wave action. There is evidence for divergent natural selection acting on size, and size‐assortative mating has previously been documented. Here, we analyze the mating pattern in L. saxatilis with respect to size in intensively sampled transects across boundaries between the habitats. We show that the mating pattern is mostly conserved between ecotypes and that it generates both assortment and directional sexual selection for small male size. Using simulations, we show that the mating pattern can contribute to reproductive isolation between ecotypes but the barrier to gene flow is likely strengthened more by sexual selection than by assortment. AU - Perini, Samuel AU - Rafajlović, Marina AU - Westram, Anja M AU - Johannesson, Kerstin AU - Butlin, Roger K. ID - 7995 IS - 7 JF - Evolution SN - 00143820 TI - Assortative mating, sexual selection, and their consequences for gene flow in Littorina VL - 74 ER - TY - GEN AB - When divergent populations are connected by gene flow, the establishment of complete reproductive isolation usually requires the joint action of multiple barrier effects. One example where multiple barrier effects are coupled consists of a single trait that is under divergent natural selection and also mediates assortative mating. Such multiple-effect traits can strongly reduce gene flow. However, there are few cases where patterns of assortative mating have been described quantitatively and their impact on gene flow has been determined. Two ecotypes of the coastal marine snail, Littorina saxatilis, occur in North Atlantic rocky-shore habitats dominated by either crab predation or wave action. There is evidence for divergent natural selection acting on size, and size-assortative mating has previously been documented. Here, we analyze the mating pattern in L. saxatilis with respect to size in intensively-sampled transects across boundaries between the habitats. We show that the mating pattern is mostly conserved between ecotypes and that it generates both assortment and directional sexual selection for small male size. Using simulations, we show that the mating pattern can contribute to reproductive isolation between ecotypes but the barrier to gene flow is likely strengthened more by sexual selection than by assortment. AU - Perini, Samuel AU - Rafajlovic, Marina AU - Westram, Anja M AU - Johannesson, Kerstin AU - Butlin, Roger ID - 8809 TI - Data from: Assortative mating, sexual selection and their consequences for gene flow in Littorina ER - TY - JOUR AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 8112 IS - 1806 JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Series B: Biological Sciences SN - 0962-8436 TI - On the completion of speciation VL - 375 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Speciation, that is, the evolution of reproductive barriers eventually leading to complete isolation, is a crucial process generating biodiversity. Recent work has contributed much to our understanding of how reproductive barriers begin to evolve, and how they are maintained in the face of gene flow. However, little is known about the transition from partial to strong reproductive isolation (RI) and the completion of speciation. We argue that the evolution of strong RI is likely to involve different processes, or new interactions among processes, compared with the evolution of the first reproductive barriers. Transition to strong RI may be brought about by changing external conditions, for example, following secondary contact. However, the increasing levels of RI themselves create opportunities for new barriers to evolve and, and interaction or coupling among barriers. These changing processes may depend on genomic architecture and leave detectable signals in the genome. We outline outstanding questions and suggest more theoretical and empirical work, considering both patterns and processes associated with strong RI, is needed to understand how speciation is completed. AU - Kulmuni, Jonna AU - Butlin, Roger K. AU - Lucek, Kay AU - Savolainen, Vincent AU - Westram, Anja M ID - 8168 IS - 1806 JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Series B: Biological sciences SN - 0962-8436 TI - Towards the completion of speciation: The evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers VL - 375 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The evolution of strong reproductive isolation (RI) is fundamental to the origins and maintenance of biological diversity, especially in situations where geographical distributions of taxa broadly overlap. But what is the history behind strong barriers currently acting in sympatry? Using whole-genome sequencing and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, we inferred (i) the evolutionary relationships, (ii) the strength of RI, and (iii) the demographic history of divergence between two broadly sympatric taxa of intertidal snail. Despite being cryptic, based on external morphology, Littorina arcana and Littorina saxatilis differ in their mode of female reproduction (egg-laying versus brooding), which may generate a strong post-zygotic barrier. We show that egg-laying and brooding snails are closely related, but genetically distinct. Genotyping of 3092 snails from three locations failed to recover any recent hybrid or backcrossed individuals, confirming that RI is strong. There was, however, evidence for a very low level of asymmetrical introgression, suggesting that isolation remains incomplete. The presence of strong, asymmetrical RI was further supported by demographic analysis of these populations. Although the taxa are currently broadly sympatric, demographic modelling suggests that they initially diverged during a short period of geographical separation involving very low gene flow. Our study suggests that some geographical separation may kick-start the evolution of strong RI, facilitating subsequent coexistence of taxa in sympatry. The strength of RI needed to achieve sympatry and the subsequent effect of sympatry on RI remain open questions. AU - Stankowski, Sean AU - Westram, Anja M AU - Zagrodzka, Zuzanna B. AU - Eyres, Isobel AU - Broquet, Thomas AU - Johannesson, Kerstin AU - Butlin, Roger K. ID - 8167 IS - 1806 JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Series B: Biological Sciences TI - The evolution of strong reproductive isolation between sympatric intertidal snails VL - 375 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Many recent studies have addressed the mechanisms operating during the early stages of speciation, but surprisingly few studies have tested theoretical predictions on the evolution of strong reproductive isolation (RI). To help address this gap, we first undertook a quantitative review of the hybrid zone literature for flowering plants in relation to reproductive barriers. Then, using Populus as an exemplary model group, we analysed genome-wide variation for phylogenetic tree topologies in both early- and late-stage speciation taxa to determine how these patterns may be related to the genomic architecture of RI. Our plant literature survey revealed variation in barrier complexity and an association between barrier number and introgressive gene flow. Focusing on Populus, our genome-wide analysis of tree topologies in speciating poplar taxa points to unusually complex genomic architectures of RI, consistent with earlier genome-wide association studies. These architectures appear to facilitate the ‘escape’ of introgressed genome segments from polygenic barriers even with strong RI, thus affecting their relationships with recombination rates. Placed within the context of the broader literature, our data illustrate how phylogenomic approaches hold great promise for addressing the evolution and temporary breakdown of RI during late stages of speciation. AU - Shang, Huiying AU - Hess, Jaqueline AU - Pickup, Melinda AU - Field, David AU - Ingvarsson, Pär K. AU - Liu, Jianquan AU - Lexer, Christian ID - 8169 IS - 1806 JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Series B: Biological Sciences TI - Evolution of strong reproductive isolation in plants: Broad-scale patterns and lessons from a perennial model group VL - 375 ER - TY - GEN AB - Fitness interactions between mutations can influence a population’s evolution in many different ways. While epistatic effects are difficult to measure precisely, important information is captured by the mean and variance of log fitnesses for individuals carrying different numbers of mutations. We derive predictions for these quantities from a class of simple fitness landscapes, based on models of optimizing selection on quantitative traits. We also explore extensions to the models, including modular pleiotropy, variable effect sizes, mutational bias and maladaptation of the wild type. We illustrate our approach by reanalysing a large dataset of mutant effects in a yeast snoRNA. Though characterized by some large epistatic effects, these data give a good overall fit to the non-epistatic null model, suggesting that epistasis might have limited influence on the evolutionary dynamics in this system. We also show how the amount of epistasis depends on both the underlying fitness landscape and the distribution of mutations, and so is expected to vary in consistent ways between new mutations, standing variation and fixed mutations. AU - Fraisse, Christelle AU - Welch, John J. ID - 9799 TI - Simulation code for Fig S1 from the distribution of epistasis on simple fitness landscapes ER - TY - GEN AB - Fitness interactions between mutations can influence a population’s evolution in many different ways. While epistatic effects are difficult to measure precisely, important information is captured by the mean and variance of log fitnesses for individuals carrying different numbers of mutations. We derive predictions for these quantities from a class of simple fitness landscapes, based on models of optimizing selection on quantitative traits. We also explore extensions to the models, including modular pleiotropy, variable effect sizes, mutational bias and maladaptation of the wild type. We illustrate our approach by reanalysing a large dataset of mutant effects in a yeast snoRNA. Though characterized by some large epistatic effects, these data give a good overall fit to the non-epistatic null model, suggesting that epistasis might have limited influence on the evolutionary dynamics in this system. We also show how the amount of epistasis depends on both the underlying fitness landscape and the distribution of mutations, and so is expected to vary in consistent ways between new mutations, standing variation and fixed mutations. AU - Fraisse, Christelle AU - Welch, John J. ID - 9798 TI - Simulation code for Fig S2 from the distribution of epistasis on simple fitness landscapes ER - TY - JOUR AB - The biotic interactions hypothesis posits that biotic interactions are more important drivers of adaptation closer to the equator, evidenced by “stronger” contemporary interactions (e.g. greater interaction rates) and/or patterns of trait evolution consistent with a history of stronger interactions. Support for the hypothesis is mixed, but few studies span tropical and temperate regions while experimentally controlling for evolutionary history. Here, we integrate field observations and common garden experiments to quantify the relative importance of pollination and herbivory in a pair of tropical‐temperate congeneric perennial herbs. Phytolacca rivinoides and P. americana are pioneer species native to the Neotropics and the eastern USA, respectively. We compared plant‐pollinator and plant‐herbivore interactions between three tropical populations of P. rivinoides from Costa Rica and three temperate populations of P. americana from its northern range edge in Michigan and Ohio. For some metrics of interaction importance, we also included three subtropical populations of P. americana from its southern range edge in Florida. This approach confounds species and region but allows us, uniquely, to measure complementary proxies of interaction importance across a tropical‐temperate range in one system. To test the prediction that lower‐latitude plants are more reliant on insect pollinators, we quantified floral display and reward, insect visitation rates, and self‐pollination ability (autogamy). To test the prediction that lower‐latitude plants experience more herbivore pressure, we quantified herbivory rates, herbivore abundance, and leaf palatability. We found evidence supporting the biotic interactions hypothesis for most comparisons between P. rivinoides and north‐temperate P. americana (floral display, insect visitation, autogamy, herbivory, herbivore abundance, and young‐leaf palatability). Results for subtropical P. americana populations, however, were typically not intermediate between P. rivinoides and north‐temperate P. americana, as would be predicted by a linear latitudinal gradient in interaction importance. Subtropical young‐leaf palatability was intermediate, but subtropical mature leaves were the least palatable, and pollination‐related traits did not differ between temperate and subtropical regions. These nonlinear patterns of interaction importance suggest future work to relate interaction importance to climatic or biotic thresholds. In sum, we found that the biotic interactions hypothesis was more consistently supported at the larger spatial scale of our study. AU - Baskett, Carina AU - Schroeder, Lucy AU - Weber, Marjorie G. AU - Schemske, Douglas W. ID - 7236 IS - 1 JF - Ecological Monographs SN - 0012-9615 TI - Multiple metrics of latitudinal patterns in insect pollination and herbivory for a tropical‐temperate congener pair VL - 90 ER -