TY - JOUR AB - Aims: Mass antigen testing programs have been challenged because of an alleged insufficient specificity, leading to a large number of false positives. The objective of this study is to derive a lower bound of the specificity of the SD Biosensor Standard Q Ag-Test in large scale practical use. Methods: Based on county data from the nationwide tests for SARS-CoV-2 in Slovakia between 31.10.–1.11. 2020 we calculate a lower confidence bound for the specificity. As positive test results were not systematically verified by PCR tests, we base the lower bound on a worst case assumption, assuming all positives to be false positives. Results: 3,625,332 persons from 79 counties were tested. The lowest positivity rate was observed in the county of Rožňava where 100 out of 34307 (0.29%) tests were positive. This implies a test specificity of at least 99.6% (97.5% one-sided lower confidence bound, adjusted for multiplicity). Conclusion: The obtained lower bound suggests a higher specificity compared to earlier studies in spite of the underlying worst case assumption and the application in a mass testing setting. The actual specificity is expected to exceed 99.6% if the prevalence in the respective regions was non-negligible at the time of testing. To our knowledge, this estimate constitutes the first bound obtained from large scale practical use of an antigen test. AU - Hledik, Michal AU - Polechova, Jitka AU - Beiglböck, Mathias AU - Herdina, Anna Nele AU - Strassl, Robert AU - Posch, Martin ID - 9816 IS - 7 JF - PLoS ONE TI - Analysis of the specificity of a COVID-19 antigen test in the Slovak mass testing program VL - 16 ER - TY - JOUR AB - This paper analyses the conditions for local adaptation in a metapopulation with infinitely many islands under a model of hard selection, where population size depends on local fitness. Each island belongs to one of two distinct ecological niches or habitats. Fitness is influenced by an additive trait which is under habitat‐dependent directional selection. Our analysis is based on the diffusion approximation and accounts for both genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. By neglecting linkage disequilibria, it yields the joint distribution of allele frequencies and population size on each island. We find that under hard selection, the conditions for local adaptation in a rare habitat are more restrictive for more polygenic traits: even moderate migration load per locus at very many loci is sufficient for population sizes to decline. This further reduces the efficacy of selection at individual loci due to increased drift and because smaller populations are more prone to swamping due to migration, causing a positive feedback between increasing maladaptation and declining population sizes. Our analysis also highlights the importance of demographic stochasticity, which exacerbates the decline in numbers of maladapted populations, leading to population collapse in the rare habitat at significantly lower migration than predicted by deterministic arguments. AU - Szep, Eniko AU - Sachdeva, Himani AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 9252 IS - 5 JF - Evolution KW - Genetics KW - Ecology KW - Evolution KW - Behavior and Systematics KW - General Agricultural and Biological Sciences SN - 0014-3820 TI - Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: A stochastic eco‐evolutionary model VL - 75 ER - TY - JOUR AB - If there are no constraints on the process of speciation, then the number of species might be expected to match the number of available niches and this number might be indefinitely large. One possible constraint is the opportunity for allopatric divergence. In 1981, Felsenstein used a simple and elegant model to ask if there might also be genetic constraints. He showed that progress towards speciation could be described by the build‐up of linkage disequilibrium among divergently selected loci and between these loci and those contributing to other forms of reproductive isolation. Therefore, speciation is opposed by recombination, because it tends to break down linkage disequilibria. Felsenstein then introduced a crucial distinction between “two‐allele” models, which are subject to this effect, and “one‐allele” models, which are free from the recombination constraint. These fundamentally important insights have been the foundation for both empirical and theoretical studies of speciation ever since. AU - Butlin, Roger K. AU - Servedio, Maria R. AU - Smadja, Carole M. AU - Bank, Claudia AU - Barton, Nicholas H AU - Flaxman, Samuel M. AU - Giraud, Tatiana AU - Hopkins, Robin AU - Larson, Erica L. AU - Maan, Martine E. AU - Meier, Joana AU - Merrill, Richard AU - Noor, Mohamed A. F. AU - Ortiz‐Barrientos, Daniel AU - Qvarnström, Anna ID - 9374 IS - 5 JF - Evolution KW - Genetics KW - Ecology KW - Evolution KW - Behavior and Systematics KW - General Agricultural and Biological Sciences SN - 0014-3820 TI - Homage to Felsenstein 1981, or why are there so few/many species? VL - 75 ER - TY - GEN AB - This paper analyzes the conditions for local adaptation in a metapopulation with infinitely many islands under a model of hard selection, where population size depends on local fitness. Each island belongs to one of two distinct ecological niches or habitats. Fitness is influenced by an additive trait which is under habitat-dependent directional selection. Our analysis is based on the diffusion approximation and accounts for both genetic drift and demographic stochasticity. By neglecting linkage disequilibria, it yields the joint distribution of allele frequencies and population size on each island. We find that under hard selection, the conditions for local adaptation in a rare habitat are more restrictive for more polygenic traits: even moderate migration load per locus at very many loci is sufficient for population sizes to decline. This further reduces the efficacy of selection at individual loci due to increased drift and because smaller populations are more prone to swamping due to migration, causing a positive feedback between increasing maladaptation and declining population sizes. Our analysis also highlights the importance of demographic stochasticity, which exacerbates the decline in numbers of maladapted populations, leading to population collapse in the rare habitat at significantly lower migration than predicted by deterministic arguments. AU - Szep, Eniko AU - Sachdeva, Himani AU - Barton, Nicholas H ID - 13062 TI - Supplementary code for: Polygenic local adaptation in metapopulations: A stochastic eco-evolutionary model ER - TY - JOUR AB - A primary roadblock to our understanding of speciation is that it usually occurs over a timeframe that is too long to study from start to finish. The idea of a speciation continuum provides something of a solution to this problem; rather than observing the entire process, we can simply reconstruct it from the multitude of speciation events that surround us. But what do we really mean when we talk about the speciation continuum, and can it really help us understand speciation? We explored these questions using a literature review and online survey of speciation researchers. Although most researchers were familiar with the concept and thought it was useful, our survey revealed extensive disagreement about what the speciation continuum actually tells us. This is due partly to the lack of a clear definition. Here, we provide an explicit definition that is compatible with the Biological Species Concept. That is, the speciation continuum is a continuum of reproductive isolation. After outlining the logic of the definition in light of alternatives, we explain why attempts to reconstruct the speciation process from present‐day populations will ultimately fail. We then outline how we think the speciation continuum concept can continue to act as a foundation for understanding the continuum of reproductive isolation that surrounds us. AU - Stankowski, Sean AU - Ravinet, Mark ID - 9383 IS - 6 JF - Evolution SN - 0014-3820 TI - Defining the speciation continuum VL - 75 ER -