TY - JOUR AB - We consider partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with a set of target states and an integer cost associated with every transition. The optimization objective we study asks to minimize the expected total cost of reaching a state in the target set, while ensuring that the target set is reached almost surely (with probability 1). We show that for integer costs approximating the optimal cost is undecidable. For positive costs, our results are as follows: (i) we establish matching lower and upper bounds for the optimal cost, both double exponential in the POMDP state space size; (ii) we show that the problem of approximating the optimal cost is decidable and present approximation algorithms developing on the existing algorithms for POMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. While the worst-case running time of our algorithm is double exponential, we also present efficient stopping criteria for the algorithm and show experimentally that it performs well in many examples of interest. AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Chmelik, Martin AU - Gupta, Raghav AU - Kanodia, Ayush ID - 1529 JF - Artificial Intelligence TI - Optimal cost almost-sure reachability in POMDPs VL - 234 ER - TY - GEN AB - We consider the quantitative analysis problem for interprocedural control-flow graphs (ICFGs). The input consists of an ICFG, a positive weight function that assigns every transition a positive integer-valued number, and a labelling of the transitions (events) as good, bad, and neutral events. The weight function assigns to each transition a numerical value that represents ameasure of how good or bad an event is. The quantitative analysis problem asks whether there is a run of the ICFG where the ratio of the sum of the numerical weights of good events versus the sum of weights of bad events in the long-run is at least a given threshold (or equivalently, to compute the maximal ratio among all valid paths in the ICFG). The quantitative analysis problem for ICFGs can be solved in polynomial time, and we present an efficient and practical algorithm for the problem. We show that several problems relevant for static program analysis, such as estimating the worst-case execution time of a program or the average energy consumption of a mobile application, can be modeled in our framework. We have implemented our algorithm as a tool in the Java Soot framework. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with two case studies. First, we show that our framework provides a sound approach (no false positives) for the analysis of inefficiently-used containers. Second, we show that our approach can also be used for static profiling of programs which reasons about methods that are frequently invoked. Our experimental results show that our tool scales to relatively large benchmarks, and discovers relevant and useful information that can be used to optimize performance of the programs. AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Pavlogiannis, Andreas AU - Velner, Yaron ID - 5445 SN - 2664-1690 TI - Quantitative interprocedural analysis ER - TY - CONF AB - POMDPs are standard models for probabilistic planning problems, where an agent interacts with an uncertain environment. We study the problem of almost-sure reachability, where given a set of target states, the question is to decide whether there is a policy to ensure that the target set is reached with probability 1 (almost-surely). While in general the problem is EXPTIMEcomplete, in many practical cases policies with a small amount of memory suffice. Moreover, the existing solution to the problem is explicit, which first requires to construct explicitly an exponential reduction to a belief-support MDP. In this work, we first study the existence of observation-stationary strategies, which is NP-complete, and then small-memory strategies. We present a symbolic algorithm by an efficient encoding to SAT and using a SAT solver for the problem. We report experimental results demonstrating the scalability of our symbolic (SAT-based) approach. © 2016, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved. AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Chmelik, Martin AU - Davies, Jessica ID - 1166 T2 - Proceedings of the Thirtieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence TI - A symbolic SAT based algorithm for almost sure reachability with small strategies in pomdps VL - 2016 ER - TY - GEN AB - The fixation probability is the probability that a new mutant introduced in a homogeneous population eventually takes over the entire population. The fixation probability is a fundamental quantity of natural selection, and known to depend on the population structure. Amplifiers of natural selection are population structures which increase the fixation probability of advantageous mutants, as compared to the baseline case of well-mixed populations. In this work we focus on symmetric population structures represented as undirected graphs. In the regime of undirected graphs, the strongest amplifier known has been the Star graph, and the existence of undirected graphs with stronger amplification properties has remained open for over a decade. In this work we present the Comet and Comet-swarm families of undirected graphs. We show that for a range of fitness values of the mutants, the Comet and Comet-swarm graphs have fixation probability strictly larger than the fixation probability of the Star graph, for fixed population size and at the limit of large populations, respectively. AU - Pavlogiannis, Andreas AU - Tkadlec, Josef AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Nowak, Martin ID - 5449 SN - 2664-1690 TI - Amplification on undirected population structures: Comets beat stars ER - TY - GEN AU - Pavlogiannis, Andreas AU - Tkadlec, Josef AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Nowak, Martin ID - 5453 SN - 2664-1690 TI - Arbitrarily strong amplifiers of natural selection ER - TY - GEN AU - Pavlogiannis, Andreas AU - Tkadlec, Josef AU - Chatterjee, Krishnendu AU - Nowak, Martin ID - 5451 SN - 2664-1690 TI - Strong amplifiers of natural selection ER - TY - GEN AB - In the beginning of our experiment, subjects were asked to read a few pages on their computer screens that would explain the rules of the subsequent game. Here, we provide these instructions, translated from German. AU - Hilbe, Christian AU - Hagel, Kristin AU - Milinski, Manfred ID - 9867 TI - Experimental game instructions ER - TY - JOUR AB - Direct reciprocity is a major mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Several classical studies have suggested that humans should quickly learn to adopt reciprocal strategies to establish mutual cooperation in repeated interactions. On the other hand, the recently discovered theory of ZD strategies has found that subjects who use extortionate strategies are able to exploit and subdue cooperators. Although such extortioners have been predicted to succeed in any population of adaptive opponents, theoretical follow-up studies questioned whether extortion can evolve in reality. However, most of these studies presumed that individuals have similar strategic possibilities and comparable outside options, whereas asymmetries are ubiquitous in real world applications. Here we show with a model and an economic experiment that extortionate strategies readily emerge once subjects differ in their strategic power. Our experiment combines a repeated social dilemma with asymmetric partner choice. In our main treatment there is one randomly chosen group member who is unilaterally allowed to exchange one of the other group members after every ten rounds of the social dilemma. We find that this asymmetric replacement opportunity generally promotes cooperation, but often the resulting payoff distribution reflects the underlying power structure. Almost half of the subjects in a better strategic position turn into extortioners, who quickly proceed to exploit their peers. By adapting their cooperation probabilities consistent with ZD theory, extortioners force their co-players to cooperate without being similarly cooperative themselves. Comparison to non-extortionate players under the same conditions indicates a substantial net gain to extortion. Our results thus highlight how power asymmetries can endanger mutually beneficial interactions, and transform them into exploitative relationships. In particular, our results indicate that the extortionate strategies predicted from ZD theory could play a more prominent role in our daily interactions than previously thought. AU - Hilbe, Christian AU - Hagel, Kristin AU - Milinski, Manfred ID - 1322 IS - 10 JF - PLoS One TI - Asymmetric power boosts extortion in an economic experiment VL - 11 ER - TY - GEN AB - The raw data file containing the experimental decisions of all our study subjects. AU - Hilbe, Christian AU - Hagel, Kristin AU - Milinski, Manfred ID - 9868 TI - Experimental data ER - TY - THES AB - We study partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with objectives used in verification and artificial intelligence. The qualitative analysis problem given a POMDP and an objective asks whether there is a strategy (policy) to ensure that the objective is satisfied almost surely (with probability 1), resp. with positive probability (with probability greater than 0). For POMDPs with limit-average payoff, where a reward value in the interval [0,1] is associated to every transition, and the payoff of an infinite path is the long-run average of the rewards, we consider two types of path constraints: (i) a quantitative limit-average constraint defines the set of paths where the payoff is at least a given threshold L1 = 1. Our main results for qualitative limit-average constraint under almost-sure winning are as follows: (i) the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is EXPTIME-complete; and (ii) the problem of deciding the existence of an infinite-memory controller is undecidable. For quantitative limit-average constraints we show that the problem of deciding the existence of a finite-memory controller is undecidable. We present a prototype implementation of our EXPTIME algorithm. For POMDPs with w-regular conditions specified as parity objectives, while the qualitative analysis problems are known to be undecidable even for very special case of parity objectives, we establish decidability (with optimal complexity) of the qualitative analysis problems for POMDPs with parity objectives under finite-memory strategies. We establish optimal (exponential) memory bounds and EXPTIME-completeness of the qualitative analysis problems under finite-memory strategies for POMDPs with parity objectives. Based on our theoretical algorithms we also present a practical approach, where we design heuristics to deal with the exponential complexity, and have applied our implementation on a number of well-known POMDP examples for robotics applications. For POMDPs with a set of target states and an integer cost associated with every transition, we study the optimization objective that asks to minimize the expected total cost of reaching a state in the target set, while ensuring that the target set is reached almost surely. We show that for general integer costs approximating the optimal cost is undecidable. For positive costs, our results are as follows: (i) we establish matching lower and upper bounds for the optimal cost, both double and exponential in the POMDP state space size; (ii) we show that the problem of approximating the optimal cost is decidable and present approximation algorithms that extend existing algorithms for POMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. We show experimentally that it performs well in many examples of interest. We study more deeply the problem of almost-sure reachability, where given a set of target states, the question is to decide whether there is a strategy to ensure that the target set is reached almost surely. While in general the problem EXPTIME-complete, in many practical cases strategies with a small amount of memory suffice. Moreover, the existing solution to the problem is explicit, which first requires to construct explicitly an exponential reduction to a belief-support MDP. We first study the existence of observation-stationary strategies, which is NP-complete, and then small-memory strategies. We present a symbolic algorithm by an efficient encoding to SAT and using a SAT solver for the problem. We report experimental results demonstrating the scalability of our symbolic (SAT-based) approach. Decentralized POMDPs (DEC-POMDPs) extend POMDPs to a multi-agent setting, where several agents operate in an uncertain environment independently to achieve a joint objective. In this work we consider Goal DEC-POMDPs, where given a set of target states, the objective is to ensure that the target set is reached with minimal cost. We consider the indefinite-horizon (infinite-horizon with either discounted-sum, or undiscounted-sum, where absorbing goal states have zero-cost) problem. We present a new and novel method to solve the problem that extends methods for finite-horizon DEC-POMDPs and the real-time dynamic programming approach for POMDPs. We present experimental results on several examples, and show that our approach presents promising results. In the end we present a short summary of a few other results related to verification of MDPs and POMDPs. AU - Chmelik, Martin ID - 1397 SN - 2663-337X TI - Algorithms for partially observable markov decision processes ER -